Unscientific Survey: The ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ Revisited

You may remember back in early April of this year, Ben Yagoda crafted an Unscientific Survey attempting to apply the concept of the “wisdom of the crowd” to the 2021 baseball season. We asked at that nascent part of the season (the Phillies were off to a 4-0 start) to guess how far they would make it into the postseason, if they would at all. Also, we asked how many games you thought they’d win.

Here’s how you responded to the playoff question:

As it turns out, 44% of you were right on the money. Although the Phils had a real chance down the stretch, an underwhelming final homestand coupled with a disastrous final series with the Braves sealed their fate.

This is the 10th year in a row they have failed to make the playoffs. However, it is far from the longest postseason drought the franchise has experienced—they missed the playoffs 34 straight seasons from 1916 to 1949, and then 25 straight years from 1951 to 1976.

One tiny silver lining is that this was the first season in a decade the Phillies finished a season with a winning record (just barely, at 82-80). The average number of wins you predicted back in April was 86. Pretty wise, indeed.