Unscientific Survey: Pandemic Follow Up
Big-time pollsters repeat the same question from survey to survey in order to see how opinions change over time. So with this Unscientific Survey we decided to do the same. Back in April, we asked readers, first, how long they predicted it would be till the pandemic-influenced changes receded and things returned to a state of relative normalcy, and, second, once that did happen, how life would be compared to before the virus hit.
The big change came in the response to the first question. In April, 65% of you thought we’d be back to relative normalcy in a year or less. Now, 85% think it will take a year or more. This change is even more dramatic considering that “in a year” is four months later now than it was in April.
Interestingly, on the second question – how will life be – the results were almost the same as in April. The only significant difference was in the number of people who think things will end up being better than before, because of what we will have learned. In August, 26% more people chose that response than in April. They were still in the minority, of course, but these days, we’ll take optimism where we can find it.
Better, Worse, or About the Same: A Readers’ Forum
This week’s survey questions, asking readers to forecast what our recovery from the coronavirus will be like, drew an unusually large number of thoughtful comments, many of them touching on the importance of an event upcoming in November. Below, a selection. —B.Y.
Even a return to somewhat normal is predicated on responsible Masking, Testing, Tracing, and Patience from most of us. Anything less will lead to recurrences and heavy costs for many demographics.
I am not an expert, but I have been telling myself that it will take until next summer for things to go back to normal, as a means of staving off extreme disappointment in the meantime.
So much depends on Trump losing the election!
The economic crisis is as deep as the Great Depression of the 1930s, and will require measures commensurate with the New Deal, and take as long to recover. Arguably, the U.S. did not recover, so much as the WWII apparatus pushed the economy into high gear. At the same time, we have to deal with the negative-externality debt of ecological overshoot. That has been publicized as the climate emergency, but it actually goes far beyond the climate emergency. Read up on doughnut economics. See swat.ink/donut-economics for an introduction.
Even though life may feel more “normal” in a year, this pandemic will leave a scar on each generation that has endured it. It’s impossible to see the future, but the economic and social fallout from this experience is likely to reverberate for years.
I believe we will be in a better position in 18 months than we are currently, because the country will be led by thoughtful, sympathetic leaders who are assisted by the brightest minds in the sciences, mathematics, humanities, social sciences, etc. The pandemic has revealed inequities that cannot and will not be ignored any longer. We will be stronger as a community because we faced a common danger together and realized we all need each other, and we could clearly see what we lost that was valuable, and what we lost that we are better without. —Betty Dowling
Potential lessons learned worldwide will not be applied because, as population and pollution increase, the political polarity between left wing humanism and right wing normativism will intensify, causing circumstances to become more adversarial. —John Brodsky, M.D.
I hope we have learned what really matters and that we cherish our time with those we love. —Dotty Lee
I tried very hard to check “Worse than before the virus, but manageable.” But I don’t see how life can’t be much worse when we get to that point, given all the unemployment, evictions, gaps in education, spousal and child abuse, and hunger that are being facilitated by COVID. Not to mention all the death.
If Trump wins the next election I expect “significantly worse,” but either way it will be worse.
My answer to the last question depends on two things: 1) Better or worse for who? and 2) the outcome of the election in November. The virus has unveiled how unequal we have become. Even if things get better for some people, if we have another four years of Trump, things will continue to be worse for many.
For question 2, I think the missing response is, Forever changed, with some things better (e.g., working-from-home flexibility a norm) and others worse or gone forever (e.g., some jobs not returning).
I’m optimistic that a vaccine will be available within a year. Getting people to get the vaccine may be a different story. I think it will take our economy some time to recover, and I think there may be lessons that we’ve learned along the way that may make things very different (hopefully a bit better in some ways).
Hopefully in a year we’ll have the medical situation under control, but the economic impacts will be felt for years to come. —Eugenia Tietz-Sokolskaya
There is currently a lot of misinformation about COVID-19 and about science in this country; it’s good to check epidemiology sites around the world, and also the podcast “This Week in Virology.” Many businesses are really stepping up and trying to protect workers, while trying to adapt and keep afloat; a few businesses see it as a “more for me” opportunity to increase their profits and just churn through people.
The economic impact of our country’s poor response to the pandemic may hold our economic growth down to historically low levels for a decade or more.
A lot depends on who wins the election in November. Ask again after that. —Beth Jones
I wrote that I expected life to be “significantly worse than before the virus,” but if we have a new president, we will have a chance to get back on a better track. —Laurie Bernstein
Education needs a re-evaluation. Hopefully, new methods and procedures will have evolved.
Although used to living alone, I do look forward to more visits with or from family. —Birgitte Haselgrove
My assessment is heavily dependent on what school and childcare looks like in the near and intermediate future. Businesses may open and operate with looser restrictions, and travel may feel more normalized, but I cannot imagine my life feeling “normal” without school operating under its regular hours. Regulations around wearing masks and being cognizant of social distancing in public do not impact my assessment of “normal.”
We will still be in denial of the gravity of the national debt, assuming we will prop up failing businesses as needed now. If we don’t, we will face nationwide destitution. You have only to drive through Philadelphia now, with half the businesses still shuttered, to see it will take decades to recover from this. Let’s hope we can find ways to work together to solve problems, and that we will have leadership in government.
It will be better because we’ll have a new president.
Ben Yagoda is the Swarthmorean’s survey editor.
